ProfessorDavid Hensher

The global conflict in the Middle East is having a significant impact on the availability of oil to many countries, with Australia feeling the impact more than most countries. Fuel prices escalated during the first three weeks of the war (up to the end of March 2026), typically being 30-50% higher than the retail prices at the pump under normal market conditions. Supply uncertainty has also created problems in distribution, especially for farmers, trucking companies and retail outlets. In response to the escalated fuel prices at the pump, the Federal government announced, on 31 March, a reduction in fuel excise for three months (from 52.6 to 26.3 cents per litre) with state and territory leaders agreeing to pass on the additional goods and services tax windfall to motorists (further reducing the total to 20.6c/litre as well as the removal of the heavy vehicle road user charge for the same period (the latter of 32.4 cents per litre is reduced to zero). This paper explores ways in which users of passenger cars have responded to these price hikes and supply uncertainty. A series of questions incorporated in a survey of 1,000 New South Wales (Australia) residents in the first two weeks of April 2026, up to a temporary ceasefire and US blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, sought evidence on behavioural change responses such as modal switching for work and non-work-related travel, changes in car kilometres, car sharing, working from home, purchase of an electric or hybrid vehicle, and switching car use between petrol/diesel and electric vehicles in the current household fleet. These responses are embedded in a number of scenarios that vary fuel prices and fuel scarcity (availability and rationing) to assess the likely behavioural response in the short run and in the longer run if a scenario becomes reality. Overall, the key policy takeaway is that fuel pricing is most effective as a short run signal and selective rationing tool, while long run resilience depends on structural adaptation, especially vehicle technology, income buffering, and access to substitutes.

The survey will ask for information about you including your current working patterns (where relevant) and your current travel behaviour. Then the survey will collect opinions on priorities for future investment that have been included in Transport for NSW’s recent Connecting NSW Strategy document. Transport for NSW is the transport agency for NSW.

Net Zero Emission Targets in Australia Aligned with Political Preference Bias

This project will apply the international survey designed and launched as part of iMOVE project 3-039 to an ACT case study. The survey investigates the factors that influence sustainable travel choices (including during windows of change) and explores respondents’ views on various government and business initiatives to influence travel. The survey looks ahead to investigate how future policy changes, technological innovations, and the emergence of new mobility services may further shape travel behaviour and examines the growing role of integrated mobility services, including the potential for packaging both mobility and non-mobility services, to assess how they may drive adoption and sustain long-term changes in travel behaviour.

Greene, W. H.. and Hensher, D.A. (2026) Hybrid choice modelling and transportation research, Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, Now Publishers Inc., Boston (part of Emerald Publishing) 174 pp.This survey examines Econometric models that are used to describe and analyze individual choice behavior. Choice models examine relationships between attributes of choices, characteristics of decision makers and the decisions that choosers make. The hybrid choice model adds latent attitudes and perceptions to the set of influencers of choice outcomes and integrates latent variable models with discrete choice models. The models considered here extend two leading platforms for contemporary choice modeling in Transportation Research: (1) the mixed (random parameters) or latent segmentation (latent class) model, and (2) stated preference analysis. This paper will survey some of the received and contemporary theoretical and Econometric aspects of this corner of discrete choice modeling. We will present several applications from the received literature for illustration.

The most challenging transport reform has always been associated with re-pricing of car use. While society complains about the growing levels of congestion on our roads, they seem reluctant to support a package of pricing reforms that can make each and every car user better off both financially and in saving time. It appears, with rare exception, that even when there is evidence of user-based support in surveys, that politicians immediately reject any suggested re-pricing model for an apparent fear of losing electoral support at the ballot box. There exist a number of systemwide charging reforms such as the Oregon kilometre-based charging, but they are in the main opt in models, which offer an appealing way for politicians to support the ideals of giving everyone a choice. The cordon-based congestion charging schemes in London, Milan, Stockholm, New York, and Singapore, while applying to all users who enter a specific location, are limited to one location, whereas our interest is in a metropolitan-wide initiative applied to all travellers. In this paper, we propose a way forward that will both give everyone a choice and deliver benefits to individuals and society. The key feature is the option for people to switch from a fixed annual registration fee to a distance-based charge during peak periods (for a portion of the fee) and ensuring that the total cost does not exceed the full registration fee. This structure enables those who opt out of a certain number of peak trips to avoid the distance-based charge, reaping financial savings while enhancing travel times for those who drive during peak periods. We show that not only are car users better off, but Treasury is also better off. The focus is on metropolitan areas, but we also consider the implications for regional and rural jurisdictions.